Group I Preview

🏆 Favourite: France

France enter 2026 as the world's second-ranked team and the most complete squad in Group I by a significant margin. Didier Deschamps has built a side that won the 2018 World Cup and reached the 2022 final — and in 2026, he has more quality available than ever before. Kylian Mbappé at Real Madrid is the most dangerous player at the tournament — his pace, finishing, and ability to decide games single-handedly make him France's primary weapon. Antoine Griezmann's intelligence and creativity give France a second attacking dimension, and Aurélien Tchouaméni's control from deep gives Deschamps the platform to build attacks without depending on any one player. William Saliba's emergence as one of the world's best centre-backs gives France defensive solidity that they have sometimes lacked. The one concern is whether the absence of Paul Pogba — who received a doping ban that has interrupted his international career — leaves France without the creative midfield control that defined their 2018 triumph. But even at reduced capacity, this France side is the clear group winner.

🌟 Dark Horse: Norway

Norway are the most compelling enigma in Group I — and potentially at the entire tournament. With Erling Haaland and Martin Ødegaard, Norway have two players who can win games on their own. Haaland's physical dominance, aerial ability, and finishing make him one of the most prolific strikers in world football. Ødegaard's vision, passing range, and ability to control games from midfield make him Norway's creative heartbeat. The problem is everything else. Solbakken's tactical approach has inconsistently gotten the best from this talent — Norway missed out on Euro 2024, which suggests structural problems that go beyond individual quality. If Solbakken can find the right system — getting Haaland and Ødegaard on the same tactical page — Norway are capable of finishing second ahead of Senegal. If he can't, they will be watching the Round of 16 from home.

⚔️ Key Battle: Senegal vs Norway

The decisive fixture of Group I is the head-to-head between Senegal and Norway — the winner takes second place. Senegal's physicality and defensive organisation against Norway's creative quality. Cissé's side will look to absorb pressure and hit Norway on the counter — Koulibaly's ability to start those attacks from deep is essential. For Norway, Ødegaard's ability to find space between Senegal's defensive lines and Haaland's movement to receive through balls is the key to breaking down a defence that has frustrated some of Africa's best attacks.

❓ Key Question: Is Mbappé's club situation affecting France?

Mbappé's ongoing uncertainty about his future at Real Madrid — with persistent speculation about a move to the Premier League — has created an off-field narrative that French journalists have been tracking throughout 2025. Whether this affects his focus at the World Cup is the unknown. What we know for certain is that when Mbappé is focused and playing at his best, he is capable of winning the World Cup almost single-handedly. The France that beat Argentina in 2018 had that version of Mbappé. The France that lost to Argentina in 2022 did not. Which Mbappé shows up in 2026 may determine whether France win the tournament.

🇫🇷 France

Kylian Mbappé — Real Madrid's French star, Mbappé's pace, finishing, and ability to decide games on his own make him France's most important player and one of the most dangerous forwards at the entire tournament. At 27, he is at his peak.

Aurélien Tchouaméni — Real Madrid's defensive midfielder, Tchouaméni's ability to break up opposition attacks and launch counter-attacks makes him France's most important midfielder. His partnership with Camavinga gives France control in the centre of the pitch.

William Saliba — Arsenal's defensive rock, Saliba's pace, aerial ability, and reading of the game make him one of the best centre-backs at the tournament. His partnership with Dayot Upamecano gives France defensive solidity that has sometimes been lacking.

🇸🇳 Senegal

Kalidou Koulibaly — Al Hilal's captain and Senegal's defensive leader, Koulibaly's physical dominance, aerial ability, and leadership make him one of the most important centre-backs at the tournament. His experience from the 2022 quarter-final run is invaluable.

Nicolas Jackson — Chelsea's pacey striker, Jackson's movement and finishing give Senegal a goal threat that combines with Ismaïla Sarr's direct running to create a dangerous attacking partnership.

Ismaïla Sarr — Watford's creative winger, Sarr's pace and direct running make him Senegal's primary source of width and attacking threat from wide areas. His ability to beat defenders and deliver into the box is essential to Cissé's system.

🇳🇴 Norway

Erling Haaland — Manchester City's goal machine, Haaland's physical dominance, aerial ability, and clinical finishing make him one of the most dangerous strikers at the tournament. His partnership with Ødegaard is the key to Norway's attacking threat.

Martin Ødegaard — Arsenal's captain, Ødegaard's vision, passing range, and ability to control games from midfield make him Norway's most important player. His set-piece delivery and creativity in the final third give Norway a second attacking dimension.

🇮🇶 Iraq

Al Quwa Al-Jawiya Core — Iraq's squad is built around the Al Quwa Al-Jawiya club, which has produced the majority of their internationals. Their team cohesion, discipline, and passion give them competitiveness that transcends individual quality gaps. Mohammed Daqqash provides the creative spark from the right side — his delivery and vision are the key to Iraq's attacking play. Iraq enter their first World Cup in 40 years with enormous national pride and nothing to lose.

1st: France 🇫🇷

Mbappé, Saliba, and Tchouaméni give France quality across the pitch that is unmatched in Group I. Even without Pogba's creative control, Deschamps has enough to win this group comfortably. Top spot and a Round of 16 match-up against one of the Group H runners-up.

2nd: Senegal 🇸🇳

Cissé's experience from 2022 counts for everything. Senegal are well-drilled, physically imposing, and have enough quality in Jackson and Sarr to beat Norway in the decisive fixture. A second consecutive Round of 16 appearance.

3rd: Norway 🇳🇴

Haaland and Ødegaard are world-class — but Solbakken's tactical inconsistency and the squad's lack of depth cost them. Norway will win games they shouldn't and lose games they should win. The familiar story of Norwegian football at major tournaments.

4th: Iraq 🇮🇶

Returning to the World Cup after a 40-year absence is a triumph for Iraqi football. They will compete with honour and passion — but the quality gap against France and Senegal is too large at this level.